The sixth UNEP Emissions Gap Report provides a scientific assessment of the impacts of the submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) on anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. Like in the previous reports, this year’s report then compares the resulting emission level in 2030 with what science tells us is required to be on track towards the agreed political target of a temperature increase no more than 2°C by the end of the century. The report also provides data for the aspirational target of an increase below 1.5°C. In addition the report analyzes selected areas where enhanced action can be taken and how these actions can be accelerated and scaled up to close the ‘gap’.
The report offers an independent assessment of the mitigation contributions from the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) committed to by 1 October 2015, by the 146 countries that account for around 90 per cent of global emissions. It compares the 2030 emission levels that would result from these commitments with what science tells us would keep average temperature increases on track to stay below 2°C by the end of the century.
The following key questions are addressed:
- What are the latest estimates of long-term emissions consistent with the target of holding the global temperature rise within 2°C/1.5°C above pre-industrial levels?
- What is the progress on implementation of the ‘Copenhagen Pledges’ and other national commitments
- Will the combined INDCs for 2030 (if fully implemented) be enough to stay within the emission range required to be consistent with the temperature target?
- What are possible contributions in some of the key areas where action can be accelerated to enhance the ambition of national pledges both in the period before 2020 and after 2020? This year, International Cooperative Initiatives (ICIs) and reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) have been in the focus of the assessment. In addition an update is provided on the areas assessed in the earlier reports.